Republican strategist Karl Rove broke down the math on the upcoming midterm elections and said it will be difficult for the GOP to retain control of the House, on “Fox & Friends” Sunday.
“Let’s remember that it is rare that the party in power gains seats in the House — since the Civil War is happening 1934, 1998 and 2002. So in all likelihood Republicans lose seats,” Rove said. “The question is how many.”
“Charlie Cook says today, that there are 208 seats that are lean, likely or solid Democrat — 196 Republican seats in the same category and the control is going to be decided by 31 seats that are toss-ups,” he continued. “Of those 30 are held by Republicans, one held by Democrats. It’s easier to win for the Democrats to win 10 seats out of 31 to take control than it is for the Republicans to win 22 out of 31 and keep control. But the key number for the Republicans is 23 of those 30 are incumbents and incumbents do have a greater ability to win — every one of them one last time around.”
“They could [win] but the odds are against them. Let’s be clear,” he replied. “It’s an uphill fight. It could happen but it’s easier if you’re at 208 to get to 218 than if you’re at 199 or 196 to get to 218. So right now the challenge is for the Republicans to hold on to these seats that are toss-ups.”
Rove said the Senate is a different story and predicted Republicans would add seats and end up with 54 GOP senators.
“Senate different [sic] — 51-49 today. There are 26 Democrat seats up, 10 of them in states that [President Donald] Trump carried, five of them by double digits,” he said, adding:
“We have never seen since 1914 when we began electing senators by popular vote a landscape as favorable to the party in power — only nine Republicans up, only one of them in a seat in a state carried by Hillary Clinton. I think the Republicans are likely to end up with a net gain of two or three. On a very good night, could be four or five net gain, but I think we’re likely to end up with a 52, excuse me, 53-54 Republican Senate afterwards.”
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