Conflicting Polls Emerge On The Texas Senate Race With Less Than A Week To Go

October 31, 2018Oct 31, 2018

Two polls out of Texas on the Senate race, released hours apart, show a notable difference in point leads — but both agree Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is ahead of his Democratic challenger Rep. Beto O’Rourke.

Dixie Strategies/CBS11 poll has the Texas senator expanding his lead to 10 points and a UT Tyler poll has him leading by just over 4 points, a contrast from other major polls.

The statewide Dixie Strategies/CBS11 poll, released Tuesday evening, shows 52 percent of likely voters preferring Cruz, and only 42 percent going for O’Rourke. The margin widened by 6 points compared to the same poll that was taken in early September.

The poll was conducted from Oct. 25 to 26 and comprised of a sample of 588 likely voters. It maintains a 4.04 point margin of error and was conducted via landlines and live calls on cellphones.

A second poll, released Wednesday morning, shows the race narrowing and O’Rourke catching up to just outside of the margin of error.

At 46.5 percent, Cruz is ahead of O’Rourke by only 4.3 points, according to a UT Tyler poll. The polling center, which was opened in September, has not previously tracked the match-up, but would show the race the tightest that it has been in months.

The poll was conducted between Oct. 15 and Oct. 28 and used a combination of landlines, mobile phones and online opinions to reach a sample of 1,033 registered voters. However, 80 percent of the responses came after early voting commenced on Oct. 22. It holds a 3.03 point margin of error.

“When narrowed to responses from the 905 likely voters in the sample, Cruz leads O’Rourke 47 percent to 43.4 percent, with 5.7 percent ‘not sure’ and 3.9 percent choosing ‘other,'” according to the poll.

While the UT Tyler poll used a larger sample size and was conducted over a longer period of time, the Dixie Strategies/CBS11 poll used a more accurate sample of likely voters (as opposed to registered voters). The Dixie Strategies/CBS11 poll also appears in line with the last six major polls on the same race, showing the Texas senator receiving more than half of the total vote.

Both Cruz and O’Rourke have been raising massive sums of money, topping $100 million in the race to win Texas, according to the Texas Tribune. O’Rourke spent around $21 million in two-and-a-half weeks, the Tribune reported. Comparatively, Cruz used $9.7 million during the same period.

“We are in the closing sprint,” Cruz said while campaigning. “We are seeing an election that is about the direction of Texas and the direction of our country.”

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